hurricanes

Hurricane Prediction Hokum

Things have settled down a bit since the climate research scandals of early 2010, and some of the crew at the Met Office Hadley Centre have put forth a new paper. In it they claim the ability to “skillfully” predict hurricane activity for several years in advance. This seems a useful and more reasonable thing for this bunch to be doing, as opposed to scaremongering about anthropogenic global warming, but there is a catch. As it turns out, the whole exercise is aimed at blaming a purported increase in hurricane activity on global warming—the climate change scam lives on.

Sun & Volcanoes Control Climate

It is accepted that volcanic eruptions can have a major impact on short term climate. A new study in Nature Geoscience uses instrument records, proxy data and climate modeling to show that multidecadal variability is a dominant feature of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST), which, in turn, impacts regional climate. It turns out that the timing of multidecadal SST fluctuations in the North Atlantic over the past 600 years has, to a large degree, been governed by changes in external solar and volcanic forcings. Solar influence is not surprising but the fact that volcanoes cause climate change lasting decades has some significant implications for those trying to model climate over the next century.

Pacific Warming, Atlantic Hurricanes & Global Climate Non-Disruption

In an example of what Presidential Science Advisor John Holdren would label “global climate disruption,” a 2009 report claimed that warming surface water in the Pacific Ocean was having an impact on the frequency of tropical storms. Moreover, landfalls along the Gulf of Mexico coast and Central America were supposedly increased. Now a new study appearing in Geophysical Research Letters has found these claims to be untrue. It seems that there is little correlation between the Atlantic hurricane activity and Pacific Ocean warming. In fact, the increased tropical storm frequency in 1969 and 2004 can be readily explained by increased warmth in the Atlantic where the storms form. Once again, those looking for a smoking gun in the form of human caused climate change are forced to look elsewhere.

More Fictitious Hurricane Predictions

According to the AP, top researchers now agree that the world is likely to get stronger but fewer hurricanes in the future because of global warming, seeming to settle a scientific debate on the subject. But they say there's not enough evidence yet to tell whether that effect has already begun. Despite warnings by scientists that identifying an actual trend in storm variability is impossible due to a lack of reliable historical data, a new report in Nature Geoscience is being cited as a solid prediction of future trends in tropical cyclone activity. The other thing not mentioned is that this research is based on models of questionable accuracy.

Judging Global Warming As A Scientific Theory

The supporters of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) claim that they have science on their side. Time and again we are told that the debate is over, the science is settled and consensus among the world's scientists reached. If that is true, why are so many scientists coming forward to oppose and denounce the climate alarmist's theory? To understand the true nature of the climate change debate it is necessary to understand what a scientific theory is and how to judge a theory's validity.

Bleached Coral Reefs Bounce Back

Bleached and dying coral reefs are often held up as proof that global warming is laying waste to Earth's ecosystems. Now come reports that a number of reefs around the world are being brought back from the dead by dedicated oceanographers and conservationists. “The results are more than just promising; they are beautiful,” says Baruch Rinkevich, a marine biologist at the National Institute of Oceanography in Haifa, Israel. But how can these reefs recover in the face on ongoing global warming? Either global warming has reversed course or the bleaching of reefs wasn't due to global warming in the first place.

African Dust Heats Up Atlantic Tropics

The evidence is in, observations and models show that northern tropical Atlantic surface temperatures are sensitive to dust blowing in from North Africa. Regional changes in stratospheric volcanic and tropospheric mineral aerosols (i.e. dust) are responsible for 69% of the upward trend in temperatures over the last 30 years. Once again a new factor has been discovered that is not accounted for in general circulation models (GCM) used to predict global warming—and once again the importance of CO2 is diminished.

Why Climate Modeling Is Not Climate Science

Most everyone has heard the recent announcement that Global Warming has been put on hold for 20 to 30 years. Earth's variable climate continues to make fools of climate scientists, obstinately refusing to follow the IPCC's climate change script. Why? Because the climate change doomsayers put their faith in computer models, not in hard science.

TRE Author Al Simmons Interviewed by Rockport Pilot

An interview with Allen Simmons, co-author of The Resilient Earth, appears in the latest edition of the Rockport Pilot. Quoting Simmons, “We are not challenging weekly weather models, nor those which predict the paths of hurricanes. We are challenging computer models which predict Earth's temperature 100 years in the future. So the main purpose of the book was to uncover the who, how and why these long-range predictions of Earth's temperature were being made.”

New Year's Climate Cornucopia

Here are some interesting climate related tidbits from the science news feeds; food for thought in the new year. First, researchers at the University of Oregon have discovered evidence linking the disappearance of North American megafauna, the Clovis people and the onset of the Younger Dryas period to a comet impact. For years scientists have blamed the disappearance of the American Mammoth, Mastodon, saber toothed cats and other large land animals on human predation or climate change.

Getting a Piece of the Pie

Noting that neither Republican John McCain nor Democrat Barack Obama has discussed climate change research on the campaign trail, an article in the October 10 issue of Science attempts to drum up support for more government funding of climate change. In particular, the article author Eli Kintisch argues that not enough funding is available in the $1.8 billion U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) budget to study the impacts of climate change. With the presidential election looming, activists are angling for political commitments in the form of campaign promises. The presidential candidates have promised to strengthen Earth monitoring and efforts to understand climate change but are short on specifics.

Hurricanes and Hot Air

With the US storm tossed in the midst of the 2008 Hurricane season the predictable has happened: the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has released another report claiming that global warming is boosting the strength and number of storms around the world and in the Atlantic. In a press release dated September 4, UNEP blames climate change for the rising cost of natural disasters around the world.

Equal Opportunity Stupidity

Looking over the people who have been named Crank of the Week on this website it would appear that we are anti-Democrat or at least right wingers—this is not the case. We are equal opportunity debunkers of muzzy headed thinking and to prove it here is a collection of short takes on dumb ideas that span the political spectrum.

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