Submitted by Anonymous on Tue, 01/19/2010 - 17:00.
Modelling extrapolates a particular set of assumptions and guesses into unknown or new areas, preferably ones which can then be tested (at least in representative samples) to see if the assumptions and guesses are logically consistent with observation. If the model fails, we know for sure that some one or more of the assumptions are wrong. If the model matches the new, test observations, we know that the model has not yet been disproven. It can then be tentatively used to predict more situations and conditions, until it is found once again to disagree with reality, at which point a new hunt for the mistaken assumption or guess embedded in it can begin. And so on.
General Semantics' fundamental motto: "The map is not the territory." No statement or model exactly matches the reality it refers to. Some are REALLY far off, other less so. It's only a matter of degree.
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What modelling does
Modelling extrapolates a particular set of assumptions and guesses into unknown or new areas, preferably ones which can then be tested (at least in representative samples) to see if the assumptions and guesses are logically consistent with observation. If the model fails, we know for sure that some one or more of the assumptions are wrong. If the model matches the new, test observations, we know that the model has not yet been disproven. It can then be tentatively used to predict more situations and conditions, until it is found once again to disagree with reality, at which point a new hunt for the mistaken assumption or guess embedded in it can begin. And so on.
General Semantics' fundamental motto: "The map is not the territory." No statement or model exactly matches the reality it refers to. Some are REALLY far off, other less so. It's only a matter of degree.