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Global Sea Level Rise & Greenland Ice Melt

The modest melting of the Greenland ice sheet during the Eemian seems to have some recognition in the leaked AR5 Draft SPM.

On page 26
The few available model results indicate global mean sea level rise by 2300 likely to be less than 1 m for greenhouse gas concentrations below 500 ppm CO2-equivalent scenario but rise as much as 1–3 m for concentrations above 700 ppm CO2-equivalent.

Further up the page we read what unrestrained rises in greenhouse gases will mean for average surface temperatures.
Continuing greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2100 as in the RCP8.5 extension induces a total radiative forcing above 12 W m–2 by 2300 that leads to a warming of 8.7 [5.0–11.6] °C by 2300 relative to 1986–2005.

If you take into account that the likely rise in temperatures in Arctic will exceed those of the global average, the modest projected sea-level rise over 3 centuries is quite remarkable.


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