Submitted by Terry Oldberg on Sat, 12/26/2009 - 18:02.
There is a more fundamental reason why "climate modeling" is not "climate science." The reason that is offered for belief in anthropogenic global warming is the climate models that are referenced by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. According to an author of the IPCC's 2007 report, Kevin Trenberth "http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/recent_contributors/kevin_trenberth/" 0, the IPCC models do not make predictions. It follows that: a) the IPCC's models are not falsifiable and b) the IPCC's models are not scientific models, by the definition of "scientific."
An appearance is created that the IPCC's models make predictions by the fact that they make what the IPCC calls "projections." A "projection" is a mathematical function that maps the time to the computed global average temperature. A prediction is a proposition about the outcome of a statistical event and a different kind of entity. While a projection supports computation of the error, it does not support falsification of the model.
![[SOHO Sun Spot Image]](http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/512/latest.jpg)
Absence of falsifiability
There is a more fundamental reason why "climate modeling" is not "climate science." The reason that is offered for belief in anthropogenic global warming is the climate models that are referenced by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. According to an author of the IPCC's 2007 report, Kevin Trenberth "http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/recent_contributors/kevin_trenberth/" 0, the IPCC models do not make predictions. It follows that: a) the IPCC's models are not falsifiable and b) the IPCC's models are not scientific models, by the definition of "scientific."
An appearance is created that the IPCC's models make predictions by the fact that they make what the IPCC calls "projections." A "projection" is a mathematical function that maps the time to the computed global average temperature. A prediction is a proposition about the outcome of a statistical event and a different kind of entity. While a projection supports computation of the error, it does not support falsification of the model.