Earth's climate is controlled by the global balance of energy. Radiation from the Sun heats up the planet while heat energy is re-radiated into space through complex interactions of land, sea and air. The journal Nature Geoscience has just published an update about the balance that controls Earth's temperature and overall climate. Scientists conclude the global balance of energy flow within the atmosphere and at Earth's surface cannot be accurately measured using current techniques and is therefore uncertain. The current uncertainty in this net surface energy balance is an order of magnitude larger than the changes associated with greenhouse gasses. In short, previous estimates of climate change are invalid, swamped by fundamental uncertainty.
Climate change alarmists point to the past several decades of European weather to reinforce their claim that global warming has the continent in its grip. A new report shows that this recent warm spell is nothing abnormal or unprecedented—during the 1990s there was simply a return to conditions present during 1931-1960. The reason for the shift is warm ocean temperatures that are, in turn driven by variation in warm ocean currents from the tropics. The instrumental record shows that, relative to the average temperature of the rest of the world’s oceans, the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean has fluctuated between anomalously warm and anomalously cool phases, each lasting several decades at a time. Palaeoclimate records suggest that similar variations extend much farther back in time. The observed pattern of multidecadal variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has become known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
The Resilient Earth Press is happy to bring you an interesting interview with the well known economist Ed Dolan. Courtesy of Oilprice.com, Dolan gives his perspective on oil prices, the prospects for cheap energy, Russia's growing uncertainty and how the natural gas boom is hindering renewable energy efforts. We think you will find a number of thought provoking statements and ideas to ponder in the views expressed in the interview, which appears in its entirety below.
Does fish fecal matter fight global warming by carrying organic carbon to the bottom of the ocean where it is sequestered in sediment? A new study claims that fish poo is under appreciated as a part of the natural carbon cycle and that it carries carbon to the ocean bottom much faster than dead zooplankton sink on their own. “Measurements of in situ abundance of fish fecal pellets or their flux are lacking, likely due to the difficulty of adequately sampling these particles,” the study's authors state, “to our knowledge, this is the first study to present estimates of fish fecal pellet abundance.” This study indicates that fish poo is an under appreciated component of both the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Surprisingly, waste from marine mammals, including whales, breaks up and degrades as it sinks, returning its carbon, nitrogen and other elements back to the environment.
The Resilient Earth Press is proud to announce the publication of Mischief's Summer by Allen Simmons. Fifteen-year-old Jeff Slater gets hired as a paid hand on luxury yacht Mischief owned by Clifford and Sybil Hinshaw. The owners assume Jeff is eighteen—he is big and smart for his age and Jeff does not correct their assumption because he wants a job on a big yacht. This unspoken lie leads Jeff into dangerous uncharted waters where evil happens.
Once again the fear-mongering hoards of lay-climatologists are denouncing the importance of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), or Medieval Climate Optimum as some refer to it. On the strength of a single new study, involving algal lipids from a lake in Svalbard, Norway, one pundit referred to the “so-called” Medieval Warm Period and impugned the significance of the Little Ice Age for good measure. Of course the writer, an “ecological journalist,” saw nothing wrong with using such a dismissive and pejorative term since it is IPCC promoted doctrine that today things are warmer than they have ever been since the onset of the Holocene. Yet literally hundreds of other studies have shown that the MWP was as warm or warmer than today and that is the real consensus among paleoclimatologists.
Even though the Wind Production Tax Credit (PTC) may be extended when Congress reconvenes in a post-election, lame duck session, American wind turbine manufacturers are laying off workers right and left. Estimates from the Institute for Energy Research (IER) indicate approximately 3,000 jobs have already been cut or designated to be cut soon. That number is almost 30% of the 11,000 direct manufacturing jobs in the industry. At the same time, the European Union (EU) has launched an investigation of Chinese photovoltaics exporters. Similar charges in the US led to the imposition of preliminary anti-subsidy tariffs on China in March and preliminary anti-dumping tariffs in May. Instead of bringing promised prosperity to developed nations, the green energy industry is collapsing or fleeing to the developing world.
Resilient Earth Press is proud to announce the publication of Allen Simmons' latest thriller, Atlantic Woman. Follow the adventures of Kate Lockhart as an archeological mystery leads to murder and mayhem in her own home town. Set among the wind swept cliffs and coves of southeastern Massachusetts, Atlantic Woman serves up plenty of thrills and chills as science, politics and upper-class intrigues collide.
Science is fairly certain that there were “vegetarian cavemen,” but they didn't last. There was a pre-human species of man, who lived around 2.7 million to 1 million years ago, that many scientists think existed on a vegetarian diet. New research shows that the vegetarian branch of ancient humans died off long ago, while their meat-eating cousins lived on and thrived. The dietary specialization of this vegan leaning branch of early hominin is thought to have contributed to its demise because it was unable to adapt to the changing environmental conditions that took place approximately 1 million years ago. Perhaps there is a message in this for today's vegetarians—eat meat or you too will become extinct.
Heralded far and wide as a harbinger of global climate change, this year's record Arctic ice melt has the uninformed climate alarmists celebrating and the more knowledgeable scratching their heads. You see, this summer's ice retreat was predicted by no computer model and few scientists even though it possible. While climate scientists ponder what is wrong with their theories nature has carried on—no fuss, no muss, no drama. Circulation patterns are shifting and living creatures from zooplankton to megafauna are taking the change in stride. What has flummoxed environmental scientists is the simple and now demonstrated fact that successful life forms have a common trait—they are adaptable, something many scientists are not.
Doug L. Hoffman's new science fiction novel, Parker's Folly, has been published in eBook format on Amazon.com. Parker's Folly is a space opera in the tradition of Heinlein and EE Doc Smith that delivers speculative science, a bit of romance and lots of action. It is the first book of the T'aafhal Inheritance trilogy that follows the adventures of Captain Jack Sutton and his crew as they discover the world shattering truth behind a war fought long ago among the stars and how things on Earth were forever changed by its outcome.
Welcome to the new Resilient Earth website. We are proud to announce the launch of the Resilient Earth Press, publishers of fiction and non-fiction books by Dr. Doug L. Hoffman and Allen Simmons. Along with the normal weekly blog posts by Dr. Hoffman, this site will feature announcements about new works by the Resilient Earth authors.
Over the past 50 years or so, the Antarctic Peninsula, the northernmost part of the mainland of Antarctica, has experienced rapid warming and the collapse of a number of ice shelves. A new temperature record derived from an ice core drilled on James Ross Island, has triggered a reassessment of what triggered the recent warming trends. This new core provides the best record of climate events on the peninsula going back at least 20,000 years, and may extend back as far as 50,000 years. From this new data a team of researchers has constructed the most detailed history of climate on the Antarctic Peninsula known to science and it has revealed a number of interesting things. Most important of these is the fact that this area undergoes bouts of rapid warming periodically and that things were at least as warm on the peninsula 2,000 years ago. So much for “unprecedented” warming on the Antarctic Peninsula.
There has been a wave of triumphal announcements by climate change proponents recently, almost giddy over the summer shrinkage of the Arctic ice sheet. “Lowest level ever!” they proclaim, thought that is not quite true. Nonetheless, The Arctic pack ice has been receding over the last decade or so, but that is only natural. You see, there is a well known, if poorly understood, linkage between the ice at the north pole and the ice in and around Antarctica—and the ice around Antarctica is doing quite well. Satellite radar altimetry measurements indicate that the East Antarctic ice sheet interior increased in mass by 45±7 billion metric tons per year from 1992 to 2003. This trend continues today, reinforcing recent scientific investigations into this millennial scale oscillation between the poles. According to studies, this is how things have been for hundreds of thousands of years.
A study of ancient volcanic ash found at key archaeological sites across Europe suggests that early modern humans were more resilient to climate change and natural disasters than commonly thought. The study, which appeared in PNAS, analyzed volcanic ash from a major eruption that occurred in Europe around 40,000 years ago. The volcano spewed so much ash that the event probably created winter-like conditions and a sudden colder shift in climate. Scientists have generally suggested that the spread of modern humans, and the decline of our cousins the Neanderthals, was primarily due to ancient volcanic eruptions and deteriorating climate conditions, but this study shows that stone-age man rolled with the punches and shrugged off the sudden shifts in climate. This new evidence flies in the face of modern predictions that a shift of a few degrees in average yearly temperature will decimate human populations world wide.