Skeptical Thoughts on Energy, Science and Global Warming

Allen Simmons Thrillers At New Lower Price!

The Resilient Earth Press announces new lower pricing on thrillers by Allen Simmons effective immediately. You can now purchase Hunting Immortality, Fatal Trust, Atlantic Woman, and Mischief's Summer for only $0.99 each. Each of these taut, suspenseful novels will help you forget the winter blues and miserable weather outside. Uncover an immoral drug conspiracy in the Swiss Alps, hunt a serial killer in sunny Miami, discover ancient remains that could rewrite the history of North America on the coast of Massachusetts, or go yachting off Cape Cod with the one percent. In these glamorous and wealthy worlds murder and mayhem await just beneath the surface.

The Perfidious P-value And False Global Warming Statistics

A recent article in Nature has the on-line scientific community all a twitter. A news feature has declared “P values, the 'gold standard' of statistical validity, are not as reliable as many scientists assume.” This is one of science's dirty little secrets, a way of providing proof of your work using a supposedly impartial statistical measure. In truth, the P value is susceptible to a legion of poor assumptions that make it not just meaningless but often misleading. In an age when historical climate data are being aggressively subjected to reanalysis and 95 percent of climate models have been wrong it is time to stop taking scientific results at face value, because they are most probably wrong.

California Dreamin' Of Wetter Times

California, the state that raises 30% of US fresh produce, is in the grip of a severe drought. Billed as the driest period in the state's recorded rainfall history, climate change alarmists have hastened to blame the parched conditions on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Paleoclimate history tells a different story, however, and highlights the amazingly short attention span of AGW advocates. Going beyond the 163-year historical period, science shows that there have been other, longer lasting and more severe droughts than the current dry spell. Today's drought is minor when compared with ancient Megadroughts, which occurred between 850 to 1090 and 1140 to 1320. In fact, the worst droughts suffered by the American Southwest all happened so long ago that human memory fails us.

Crank of the Week – January 27, 2014 – Rep. Henry A. Waxman

Congressman Henry Waxman, Democrat representative from California, announced his retirement on Thursday, January 20. After 20 terms and 40 years in the U.S. House of Representatives, the liberal politician has decided to return to private life. During his tenure in the House, Waxman was an unwavering champion of ecological causes, including anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Greens and climate change alarmists had no better champion in Washington. Over the years, hyper Henry introduced bill after bill to combat what he saw as the evils of climate change. But now the environmental elf from the left coast is leaving, and the American people should rejoyce.

Procrastinating About The Pause

The world is entering the 16th year of the greatest climate science embarrassment in modern history—the pause in global warming. Despite rising IPCC confidence levels and hundreds of computer model predictions, that darned old climate is just not behaving like the boffins say it should. After all, CO2 keeps rising, and we all know that CO2 drives Earth's climate like the thermostat in a house... or not. No longer able to sweep the lack of warming under the observational rug, the climate change community had started flailing about for answers: the heat must be hiding deep in the ocean, it must be soot from China, some have even begun to wonder whether there is something wrong with their models. Most are still convinced that the missing heat is hidden somewhere because they will not accept the simplest explanation—the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming is fundamentally incorrect.

A poll to test the Lewandowsky methodology

Here is an opportunity for global warming skeptics to participate in a survey. Have you heard of Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky? He is a cognitive scientist, currently Chair of Cognitive Psychology at the University of Bristol. He is also a global warming true believer who has attempted to discredit climate change skeptics using psychobabble and unethical scientific studies. One of the favorite smears used by Lewandowsky to try and diminish the arguments of climate skeptics is publishing psuedo-scientific psychological studies that "prove" skeptics are conspiracy theorists. In response, Brandon Schollenberger is running a poll of his own to capture the attitudes of skeptics over at WUWT. If you are a skeptic please take the short anonymous poll...

Arctic Vortex Vexation

You may have notice that the news media talking heads and TV weather presenters have discovered a new term recently—the Arctic Vortex. In a splendid demonstration of how the weak minded are quickly consumed by group think, and ill understood terms get repeated ad nauseum, the Arctic Vortex has dominated the news during the past week in the US. In truth, the phenomenon is not new. What is new is that its current foray south is being loudly attributed to global warming. For years the effects of a warming Arctic have been the subject of scientific speculation. Dubbed Arctic amplification, some claim it will enhanced extreme weather in the middle latitudes. The fact that such linkage is tenuous at best has not stopped ignorant politicians like the UK's David Cameron and the US's Barack Obama from blaming recent nasty weather on that old nugget, anthropogenic global warming. There is, however, some evidence to the contrary from one scientist who studies atmospheric dynamics and variability under different climates.

Global Warming Stuck At Sea

Nature has served up a lesson to publicity seeking, self important scientists during the past month. It seems that a clutch of global warming true believers chartered a ship to go visit Antarctica, in an effort to show that the southernmost continent is being ravaged by human caused climate change. This shipboard comedy of errors backfired on the warmists when their ship got stuck fast in the ice, kilometers from a bay they hoped to find ice free. Moreover, at least one other ship sent to rescue the hapless climatological tourists got stuck as well. All of this in the middle of the Antarctic summer. Will they never learn that making unfounded claims in an attempt to “prove” anthropogenic global warming inevitably fails? It would all be laughable if this floating farce wasn't going to cost the taxpayers of Australia, the US and other countries several million dollars to rescue the fools.

Happy New Year 2014!

All of us here at The Resilient Earth wish our readers the happiest of New Years. As you all probably know, 2013 was not the best of years for the global warming backers of the world. In the US, we have experienced the lowest number of tropical storms, tornadoes and wild fires in decades. The year past saw more record lows set than record highs and drought conditions eased in many places. While this does not disprove the global warming hypotheses, all those factors were cited by AGW proponents as outcomes of rising global temperatures. The fact that the opposite of the warmists' predictions have taken place weakens the theory and casts doubt on the whole climate change scam. Given that both North America and Europe are in the grip of frigid winter temperatures it is an AGW true believer indeed who continues to insist the world is getting hotter.

Disfiguring Science

As 2013 draws to a close two new Nobel laureates have spoken out about the state of science, and their conclusions are not encouraging. One describes how science is damaged by journals like Nature, Cell and Science. These premier journals distort scientific inquiry and create false competition among authors that lead to sensational or controversial papers. Add to this peer pressure and group think and the result is crap science like the global warming scam. The second laureate believes that emphasis on publishing volume has created an academic climate where no university would employ him today because he would not be considered “productive” enough. The publish or perish philosophy has expanded to the point that researchers are doing fast science, not good science. If scientists were not forced to rapidly publish their results perhaps the quality of the research would rise.

Damaging GM Food Study Withdrawn

In 2012, a research group led by Gilles-Eric Séralini, a molecular biologist at the University of Caen, France, published a controversial paper that claimed genetically modified (GM) maize (corn) causes serious disease in rats. But analysis by the scientific community concluded that the study was fatally flawed. Critics asserted that the small number and type of animals used in the study meant that “no definitive conclusions can be reached.” Regardless, many anti-GM activists touted the paper as proof that GM crops were dangerous and called for a ban on all GM crops. Now, the journal Food and Chemical Toxicology has withdrawn the disputed paper over the authors' objection—sometimes science does work.

The Tyranny Of Climate Change

The current interglacial warm period, the Holocene, started ∼11,500 years ago. At its start, among the dramatic changes in climate was a notable increase in rainfall, triggered by summer insolation values higher than those of today. This caused what is called the African Humid Period in North Africa—a time when the Sahara was dotted with large and small lakes, savannah grasslands, and in some regions, humid tropical forests and shrubs. The African Humid Period ended abruptly ∼5000 ybp (years before present) in many locations, such as western North Africa and northern Kenya. In other places, such as the central Sahara and the southern Arabian Peninsula, change occurred more gradually, taking several millennia. Regardless of the pace of change, those areas are tracts of arid desert today, and the animals and humans who had previously thrived in those formerly verdant regions have either moved or had to adapt to much harsher conditions. This is but one example of nature at its most capricious—the tyranny of climate change.

The Super Storm Meme

Unless you have been living in one of the few truly remote areas of the planet, you have been exposed to them. Climate change memes that pass from person to person and are repeated without thought or critical examination. They range from the subtle—bad weather is being increased by global warming—to the banal—over 97% of scientists agree about climate change. We are bombarded with these unsubstantiated ideas over and over again, from talking heads on TV, newspaper headlines, our friends and even the president of the United States. They are blatant untruths that have become legitimized by repetition, until school children and adults alike patriot them to each other. The recent tropical cyclone, Haiyan, has triggered another round of meme infection: it was the worst storm in history, tropical storms are getting bigger every year, there are more storms every year, and, of course, they are all caused by global warming. Trouble is, these “facts” are all false.

Asteroid Risk Rising

The asteroid that exploded on 15 February, 2013, near the city of Chelyabinsk in the Urals region of Russia was the largest to fall to Earth since 1908. That was the year of the famed Tunguska blast in Siberia. This latest fireball exploded with the energy of a half megaton nuclear bomb, seven times the blast that leveled Hiroshima. Using updated information, new reports in both Science and Nature reassess the risk of Earth being impacted by a large object. The researchers found that risk of similar objects hitting our planet may be ten times larger than previously thought. It is time we stop wasting time and government money on stupid measures like windmills, solar panels and a carbon tax and do something about a very real threat to our planet.

Problems With The Pliocene

Climate alarmists are constantly warning that Earth is going to warm up, driven they say by the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. To bolster their claims they point to the Pliocene, a time 4-5 million years ago, when the planet was 4-8°C hotter and CO2 levels were 400ppm or higher. This is the climate we are heading for, the global warming supporters say—but it that really true? Superficially it seems a plausible assertion, but as it turns out there is much more here than CO2 and temperature. It is not just the average temperature but the distribution of temperature at different latitudes, both over land and sea, that controls the climate. It is the temperature gradient that drives storms and affects weather patterns and it was much different during the Pliocene. Moreover, climate models do not generate a Pliocene like climate when run with higher CO2 levels, which means climate scientists are missing something important about the way Earth's climate system works.

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