For half a century, climate scientists have been attempting to simulate the workings of Earth's climate system in computer models. Over that period of time computers have increased in computational power a million fold, allowing models to grow in complexity and, if you accept the word of the modelers themselves, accuracy. Today's models may produce more realistic output but that should not be confused with more accurate output—modern climate models are still unable to accurately predict future fluctuations in Earth's environment. Why this should be so is highlighted in a new paper published in the Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES), a publication of the American Geophysical Union. In it the tuning secrets of those modern-day mystics, climate modelers, are revealed.
The Resilient Earth Press is pleased to announce that Doug Hoffman's action filled science fiction adventure novel, Parker's Folly, is now available in print. The novel is available in a high quality 6x9 inch format trade paper back from Amazon.com. With Christmas rapidly approaching, Parker's Folly would make a great gift for that science fiction fan on your list. This version contains the exact same text as the previously published Kindle eBook version, so either way you will not miss a single word of this wonderful new space opera.
Instrument data from the last 160 years indicate a general warming trend during that span of time. However, when this period is examined in the light of palaeoclimate reconstructions, the recent warming appears to be a part of more systematic fluctuations. Specifically, it is an expected warming period following the 200-year “Little Ice Age” cold period. Moreover, a new study of the natural variability of past climate, as seen from available proxy information, finds a synthesis between the Milankovitch cycles and Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic dynamics—a result that shows multi-scale climate fluctuations cannot be described adequately by classical statistics.
In a mad rush to prove who can put out the most inane press release, various warm-mongers, news hacks and climate alarmists have gone on a predictable spree, trying to blame Hurricane Sandy and the resulting disaster in the US Northeast on CO2 levels. Who are these clowns? Even the IPCC issued a statement saying that global warming was not to blame. Have none of these empty headed blatherskites noticed that it has been more than seven years since a major hurricane struck the US, the longest such period since the Civil War? Evidently not, since they continue to spew unscientific twaddle and the news media continues to lap it up like a dog eating its own vomit.
Earth's climate is controlled by the global balance of energy. Radiation from the Sun heats up the planet while heat energy is re-radiated into space through complex interactions of land, sea and air. The journal Nature Geoscience has just published an update about the balance that controls Earth's temperature and overall climate. Scientists conclude the global balance of energy flow within the atmosphere and at Earth's surface cannot be accurately measured using current techniques and is therefore uncertain. The current uncertainty in this net surface energy balance is an order of magnitude larger than the changes associated with greenhouse gasses. In short, previous estimates of climate change are invalid, swamped by fundamental uncertainty.
Climate change alarmists point to the past several decades of European weather to reinforce their claim that global warming has the continent in its grip. A new report shows that this recent warm spell is nothing abnormal or unprecedented—during the 1990s there was simply a return to conditions present during 1931-1960. The reason for the shift is warm ocean temperatures that are, in turn driven by variation in warm ocean currents from the tropics. The instrumental record shows that, relative to the average temperature of the rest of the world’s oceans, the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean has fluctuated between anomalously warm and anomalously cool phases, each lasting several decades at a time. Palaeoclimate records suggest that similar variations extend much farther back in time. The observed pattern of multidecadal variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has become known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
The Resilient Earth Press is happy to bring you an interesting interview with the well known economist Ed Dolan. Courtesy of Oilprice.com, Dolan gives his perspective on oil prices, the prospects for cheap energy, Russia's growing uncertainty and how the natural gas boom is hindering renewable energy efforts. We think you will find a number of thought provoking statements and ideas to ponder in the views expressed in the interview, which appears in its entirety below.
Does fish fecal matter fight global warming by carrying organic carbon to the bottom of the ocean where it is sequestered in sediment? A new study claims that fish poo is under appreciated as a part of the natural carbon cycle and that it carries carbon to the ocean bottom much faster than dead zooplankton sink on their own. “Measurements of in situ abundance of fish fecal pellets or their flux are lacking, likely due to the difficulty of adequately sampling these particles,” the study's authors state, “to our knowledge, this is the first study to present estimates of fish fecal pellet abundance.” This study indicates that fish poo is an under appreciated component of both the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Surprisingly, waste from marine mammals, including whales, breaks up and degrades as it sinks, returning its carbon, nitrogen and other elements back to the environment.
The Resilient Earth Press is proud to announce the publication of Mischief's Summer by Allen Simmons. Fifteen-year-old Jeff Slater gets hired as a paid hand on luxury yacht Mischief owned by Clifford and Sybil Hinshaw. The owners assume Jeff is eighteen—he is big and smart for his age and Jeff does not correct their assumption because he wants a job on a big yacht. This unspoken lie leads Jeff into dangerous uncharted waters where evil happens.
Once again the fear-mongering hoards of lay-climatologists are denouncing the importance of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), or Medieval Climate Optimum as some refer to it. On the strength of a single new study, involving algal lipids from a lake in Svalbard, Norway, one pundit referred to the “so-called” Medieval Warm Period and impugned the significance of the Little Ice Age for good measure. Of course the writer, an “ecological journalist,” saw nothing wrong with using such a dismissive and pejorative term since it is IPCC promoted doctrine that today things are warmer than they have ever been since the onset of the Holocene. Yet literally hundreds of other studies have shown that the MWP was as warm or warmer than today and that is the real consensus among paleoclimatologists.
Even though the Wind Production Tax Credit (PTC) may be extended when Congress reconvenes in a post-election, lame duck session, American wind turbine manufacturers are laying off workers right and left. Estimates from the Institute for Energy Research (IER) indicate approximately 3,000 jobs have already been cut or designated to be cut soon. That number is almost 30% of the 11,000 direct manufacturing jobs in the industry. At the same time, the European Union (EU) has launched an investigation of Chinese photovoltaics exporters. Similar charges in the US led to the imposition of preliminary anti-subsidy tariffs on China in March and preliminary anti-dumping tariffs in May. Instead of bringing promised prosperity to developed nations, the green energy industry is collapsing or fleeing to the developing world.
Resilient Earth Press is proud to announce the publication of Allen Simmons' latest thriller, Atlantic Woman. Follow the adventures of Kate Lockhart as an archeological mystery leads to murder and mayhem in her own home town. Set among the wind swept cliffs and coves of southeastern Massachusetts, Atlantic Woman serves up plenty of thrills and chills as science, politics and upper-class intrigues collide.
Science is fairly certain that there were “vegetarian cavemen,” but they didn't last. There was a pre-human species of man, who lived around 2.7 million to 1 million years ago, that many scientists think existed on a vegetarian diet. New research shows that the vegetarian branch of ancient humans died off long ago, while their meat-eating cousins lived on and thrived. The dietary specialization of this vegan leaning branch of early hominin is thought to have contributed to its demise because it was unable to adapt to the changing environmental conditions that took place approximately 1 million years ago. Perhaps there is a message in this for today's vegetarians—eat meat or you too will become extinct.
Heralded far and wide as a harbinger of global climate change, this year's record Arctic ice melt has the uninformed climate alarmists celebrating and the more knowledgeable scratching their heads. You see, this summer's ice retreat was predicted by no computer model and few scientists even though it possible. While climate scientists ponder what is wrong with their theories nature has carried on—no fuss, no muss, no drama. Circulation patterns are shifting and living creatures from zooplankton to megafauna are taking the change in stride. What has flummoxed environmental scientists is the simple and now demonstrated fact that successful life forms have a common trait—they are adaptable, something many scientists are not.
Doug L. Hoffman's new science fiction novel, Parker's Folly, has been published in eBook format on Amazon.com. Parker's Folly is a space opera in the tradition of Heinlein and EE Doc Smith that delivers speculative science, a bit of romance and lots of action. It is the first book of the T'aafhal Inheritance trilogy that follows the adventures of Captain Jack Sutton and his crew as they discover the world shattering truth behind a war fought long ago among the stars and how things on Earth were forever changed by its outcome.